Rural Voters and Farmers Are Pulling Back Support for Trump — Here's Why It Matters

When the voters who have most reliably backed a president start to have second thoughts, it's worth paying attention. New polling shows that rural Americans — long considered one of Donald Trump's most dependable voting blocs — are now disapproving of his job performance at rates that would have seemed unthinkable just a year ago.

A Fox News poll released this week found that Trump's net approval rating among rural voters has swung a dramatic 34 points since early 2025, dropping from +20 to -14. Among rural white voters specifically, the slide was nearly as steep — falling 33 points, from +27 all the way down to -6. Those are not small movements. These are the kinds of shifts that can change election outcomes.

The poll was conducted May 15–18 among 1,002 registered voters nationwide. It was jointly carried out by Beacon Research, a Democratic-leaning firm, and Shaw & Company Research, a Republican-leaning firm, using a combination of phone calls and online responses. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

What the Numbers Actually Say

Trump's overall approval rating came in at 39 percent in the survey — just one point above the lowest mark recorded in this polling series. But the story behind that headline number is what stands out.

On the economy, only 29 percent of all voters said they approved of how Trump is handling it, while 71 percent disapproved. Rural voters were almost identical: 30 percent approved, 70 percent disapproved. Inflation drew his worst marks of any issue tested — just 24 percent approval nationally, and 28 percent among rural voters.

Even border security, which had been one of Trump's more durable strengths, has slipped into negative territory overall for the first time this term, with 49 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving. Rural voters still lean toward approval on that issue at 54 to 45 percent, but the overall trend is moving in the wrong direction for the White House.

Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News survey alongside Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, described what he's seeing in direct terms.

"Despite consistently strong GOP support, the president's numbers are leaking a bit," Shaw said. "Make no mistake; it's all about affordability. Independents jumped ship in 2025, and now non-MAGA Republicans and other core constituencies are wavering."

Farmers Are Feeling It Most

To understand why rural opinion is shifting, it helps to look at what is actually happening on farms across the country right now. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, farm bankruptcies jumped 46 percent in 2025 compared to the year before. That's a stark number that reflects the financial reality facing many agricultural families.

Costs have surged on multiple fronts. Fertilizer and diesel prices have climbed significantly, driven in part by energy market disruptions tied to the conflict with Iran. For farm operations that already run on thin profit margins, those increases hit hard and fast.

Willis Nelson, a farmer in Louisiana, described the situation plainly in an interview with MS Now, explaining that his family has been forced to cut back on fertilizer because "we just don't have the margin."

"We're not financially able" to operate as normal, Nelson said. "It's tough, you know, very tough on us," he added, as his multigenerational farm faces the prospect of bankruptcy.

Fred Yoder, an Ohio farmer, offered a similarly sobering picture in comments shared by Farm Action from an interview with US Farm Report. He described what it costs just to keep equipment running day to day.

"It's costing us about $1,500 of cash per day to run two tractors," Yoder said. He noted that fertilizer prices have exploded compared to what he paid for years. "I spent many years buying potash for $90 a ton, and now it's $670 to $700 a ton. Our big problem is the input costs. I haven't seen anything this bad since the 1980s."

Trade pressures have added another layer of difficulty. Reduced Chinese demand for American agricultural products — particularly soybeans — has weakened prices and left farmers with fewer reliable export markets to count on. During Trump's recent trip to Beijing, he also drew attention for defending Chinese purchases of American farmland, arguing that restricting foreign ownership would lower land values. That position has deepened unease among farmers already worried about foreign control of U.S. agricultural land.

Why This Could Matter for Future Elections

Rural voters have historically provided Republicans — and Trump in particular — with some of their largest margins of victory. Even modest erosion in turnout or enthusiasm within this group could carry real consequences for Senate and House races later this year, especially in states where agricultural communities make up a significant share of the electorate.

The Fox News data shows the sharpest single-month drop among rural voters came between April and May of this year, when net approval fell 16 points in just one month. That kind of acceleration suggests the frustration is not fading on its own.

The White House's Take

Administration officials disputed the significance of the polling results, characterizing them as a temporary snapshot rather than a meaningful or lasting trend.

White House spokesman Kush Desai argued that the American economy has remained strong under Trump, saying "as this agenda continues taking effect, and as Congress passes more of the president's healthcare and housing affordability agenda, the best is yet to come in the second Trump term."

Spokesman Davis Ingle pointed to Trump's 2024 election win as the more relevant measure of public support, stating that "the ultimate poll was November 5th 2024 when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda." Ingle added that the administration is "working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more," and described current results as "just the beginning."